'The long-term trend is one of stability,' says LonRes this month, as property agents report buyers are back out shopping.
2023 ended on a “subdued” note in Prime London’s sales market, with average achieved prices down by -6.2% on an annual basis. Activity was also lower last month, with transactions -16.6% below December 2022’s levels; under-offer numbers were reduced by -16.9%; and new sales instructions fell by -8.6% on the same basis. 2023’s full-year transaction total was -18% lower annually, but remained 2.1% higher compared to the pre-pandemic annual average.
Despite the drop-off in new instructions, stock levels on 31st December 2023 were still 7.2% higher than a year earlier, and 30.6% up on the end of 2019. For the £5m+ market new instructions in 2023 were 8.8% higher than a year earlier and, combined with the lower levels of sales activity, this has resulted in 21% more stock for sale across prime London on 31 December 2023 than a year earlier, and 49% more than at the end of 2019.
It does sounds as though 2024 is off to a more positive start all-round, with viewing numbers on the rise and market forecasts for 2024 and 2025 rather more upbeat than would have been expected a few months ago. There are plenty of economic and geopolitical risks on the horizon, but this positivity is due to the Bank of England calling a halt to interest rate rises from late summer 2023 and subsequently lenders have been cutting mortgage rates.
Knight Frank have now predicted mainstream UK property values to rise by 3% in 2024, which compares to a decline of 4% predicted in October. Growth is likely to continue in low-level positive single-digits in subsequent years, resulting in cumulative growth of 20.5% in the five years to 2028. Within the PCL, they now predicted to see 1% price growth this year (up from 0.0% forecast in October), with an 18.1% increase over the five years to 2028 (up dramatically from just 8.1% in the previous predictions, to 2027). |
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Here are the key findings for the quarterly figures complied by London’s premier data source LonRes.
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Marylebone & Medical Territory Q4 2023 Sales Report
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Sold Oct-Dec 2023: Key Findings
- Average flat prices are now 4.6% lower they were 5 years ago, with buyers paying £77 less per square foot than they did 5 years ago.
- Achieved prices per square foot have decreased by 11.3% for flats over the last year, and have decreased by 7.9% for houses.
- 14.7% of properties sold within 3 months, compared with 14.3% for the whole of Central London.
- Properties sold in the last 3 months achieved an average price of £1,645,708 for flats and £4,105,000 for houses.
Current Availability: Key Findings
- 43.2% of properties on the market are priced at £1 million or higher.
- 54.6% of properties currently available have been on the market for more than six months.
- 15.3% of flats and 9.7% of houses on the market are currently under offer.
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Mayfair & St James's Q4 2023 Sales Report
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Sold Oct-Dec 2023: Key Findings
- Average flat prices are now 23.1% higher they were 5 years ago, with buyers paying £439 more per square foot than they did 5 years ago.
- Achieved prices per square foot have decreased by 18.3% for flats over the last year, and have decreased by 35.4% for houses.
- 5.0% of properties sold within 3 months, compared with 14.3% for the whole of Central London.
- Properties sold in the last 3 months achieved an average price of £4,891,458 for flats and £4,990,000 for houses.
Current Availability: Key Findings
- 71.1% of properties on the market are priced at £1 million or higher.
- 66.0% of properties currently available have been on the market for more than six months.
- 5.9% of flats and none of the houses on the market are currently under offer.
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Knightsbridge & Belgravia Q4 2023 Sales Report
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Sold Oct-Dec 2023: Key Findings
- Average flat prices are now 3.9% lower they were 5 years ago, with buyers paying £76 less per square foot than they did 5 years ago.
- Achieved prices per square foot have decreased by 2.0% for flats over the last year, and have increased by 6.3% for houses.
- 20.0% of properties sold within 3 months, compared with 14.3% for the whole of Central London.
- Properties sold in the last 3 months achieved an average price of £2,560,703 for flats and £4,692,409 for houses.
Current Availability: Key Findings
- 67.7% of properties on the market are priced at £1 million or higher.
- 56.7% of properties currently available have been on the market for more than six months.
- 7.8% of flats and 6.5% of houses on the market are currently under offer.
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Chelsea Q4 2024 Sales Report
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Sold Oct-Dec 2023: Key Findings
- Average flat prices are now 6.6% lower they were 5 years ago, with buyers paying £97 less per square foot than they did 5 years ago.
- Achieved prices per square foot have decreased by 5.4% for flats over the last year, and have decreased by 13.4% for houses.
- 14.3% of properties sold within 3 months, compared with 14.3% for the whole of Central London.
- Properties sold in the last 3 months achieved an average price of £1,385,415 for flats and £4,888,054 for houses.
Current Availability: Key Findings
- 36.1% of properties on the market are priced at £1 million or higher.
- 52.5% of properties currently available have been on the market for more than six months.
- 17.2% of flats and 9.6% of houses on the market are currently under offer.
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Fulham & Earls Court Q4 2023 Sales Report
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Sold Oct-Dec 2023: Key Findings
- Average flat prices are now 0.0% higher they were 5 years ago, with buyers paying £0 more per square foot than they did 5 years ago.
- Achieved prices per square foot have decreased by 6.7% for flats over the last year, and have decreased by 4.9% for houses.
- 14.7% of properties sold within 3 months, compared with 14.3% for the whole of Central London.
- Properties sold in the last 3 months achieved an average price of £819,258 for flats and £1,418,688 for houses.
Current Availability: Key Findings
- 46.1% of properties on the market are priced at £1 million or higher.
- 55.9% of properties currently available have been on the market for more than six months.
- 14.8% of flats and 15.3% of houses on the market are currently under offer.
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South Kensington Q4 2023 Sales Report
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Sold Oct-Dec 2023: Key Findings
- Average flat prices are now 8.3% lower they were 5 years ago, with buyers paying £141 less per square foot than they did 5 years ago.
- Achieved prices per square foot have decreased by 14.9% for flats over the last year, and have decreased by 0.4% for houses.
- 22.0% of properties sold within 3 months, compared with 14.3% for the whole of Central London.
- Properties sold in the last 3 months achieved an average price of £2,288,140 for flats and £3,622,500 for houses.
Current Availability: Key Findings
- 50.5% of properties on the market are priced at £1 million or higher.
- 53.8% of properties currently available have been on the market for more than six months.
- 10.8% of flats and 7.6% of houses on the market are currently under offer.
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Kensington, Notting Hill & Holland Park Q4 2023 Sales Report
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Sold Oct-Dec 2023: Key Findings
- Average flat prices are now 1.8% higher they were 5 years ago, with buyers paying £22 more per square foot than they did 5 years ago.
- Achieved prices per square foot have decreased by 2.8% for flats over the last year, and have decreased by 6.7% for houses.
- 18.0% of properties sold within 3 months, compared with 14.3% for the whole of Central London.
- Properties sold in the last 3 months achieved an average price of £1,418,775 for flats and £3,871,452 for houses.
Current Availability: Key Findings
- 34.8% of properties on the market are priced at £1 million or higher.
- 49.7% of properties currently available have been on the market for more than six months.
- 18.0% of flats and 7.3% of houses on the market are currently under offer.
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Bayswater & Maida Vale Q4 2023 Sales Report
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Sold Oct-Dec 2023: Key Findings
- Average flat prices are now 1.4% higher they were 5 years ago, with buyers paying £16 more per square foot than they did 5 years ago.
- Achieved prices per square foot have decreased by 0.1% for flats over the last year, and have decreased by 7.3% for houses.
- 9.5% of properties sold within 3 months, compared with 14.3% for the whole of Central London.
- Properties sold in the last 3 months achieved an average price of £1,133,352 for flats and £3,127,000 for houses.
Current Availability: Key Findings
- 22.2% of properties on the market are priced at £1 million or higher.
- 55.3% of properties currently available have been on the market for more than six months.
- 16.8% of flats and 10.7% of houses on the market are currently under offer.
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St John's Wood, Regents Park & Camden Q4 2023 Sales Report
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Sold Oct-Dec 2023: Key Findings
- Average flat prices are now 4.1% higher they were 5 years ago, with buyers paying £43 more per square foot than they did 5 years ago.
- Achieved prices per square foot have decreased by 9.8% for flats over the last year, and have decreased by 1.8% for houses.
- 14.3% of properties sold within 3 months, compared with 14.3% for the whole of Central London.
- Properties sold in the last 3 months achieved an average price of £1,094,267 for flats and £5,749,000 for houses.
Current Availability: Key Findings
- 29.8% of properties on the market are priced at £1 million or higher.
- 49.5% of properties currently available have been on the market for more than six months.
- 16.8% of flats and 9.5% of houses on the market are currently under offer.
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