Latest London Property News: July 2024

Market Overview

Looking forward, while much remains to be seen in terms of specific policies and proposals, sentiment is likely to improve now that the results of the election are known. For central London some may remain cautious, ahead of Labour’s first fiscal event. Here, the relatively small falls in value witnessed during the second quarter are also underpinned by where prices sit in a historical context. Overall across prime central London, prices remain -19% down on their previous peak a decade ago suggesting it is still a case of when, and not if, a stronger recovery takes hold.

“Resilience” is the word of the moment for those talking-up prime property markets this year. Pundits across high-value London and country locations have flagged how deal numbers and and house prices have held up surprisingly well in the face of a General Election and higher-for-longer interest rates.

The top end of London’s housing market remained resilient during the second quarter, despite some uncertainty in the run up to July’s general election, although some prime buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach until the results of the election were known. There were fairly instantaneous movements following Labour’s landslide – with a surge of prime properties hitting the sales market having been deliberately held back pending the election result.

That means there’s scope for a jump in buying activity through the Autumn, coinciding with a traditional September-time flurry of new instructions – at least until Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ first Budget heaves into view.

Some 5% more sales were agreed above £1mn in Prime London in June this year than in the same month last year, according to TwentyCi, but this is lower than the 15% increase seen in May. At the same time, new instructions above £1mn were down -11% compared to last year, as sellers held back from listing immediately ahead of the vote.

Labour’s election victory was widely viewed as a foregone conclusion, and the political shift seems to have been priced-in to property values ahead of time. In Prime Central London, average values dipped by a marginal -0.4% in the three months to the end of June, and by -0.9% over the past year.

There has been a degree of hand-wringing in luxury property circles over the end of non-dom tax exemptions (which have support from both Labour and Conservative parties). But there is little evidence to suggest we’ll see a flurry of stock coming onto the market as a result of the incoming reform, since many who will be affected are likely to retain their base in the capital. Also, most prime central London buyers, and indeed sellers, do not have non-dom status and demand from domestic and other international purchasers continues to be resilient, partly because of the value on offer in a historical context.

Q1 2024 Sales Reports

Here are the key findings for the quarterly figures complied by London’s premier data source LonRes.